Saturday 1 July 2017

Food Security, Food Choices vis-à-vis Climate Change

Opinions & Prejudices


This is my opinion as an Ecologist on whether our food habits, especially our Indian Food choices have a significant impact on Global Warming and Climate Change.

This has been prompted by a Twitter debate with  an author & a vegan by choice and believes in global vegetarianism. This is incidentally not the first debate I have had where I am told a Vegetarian diet would be good for the planet. The last such debate was with the insufferable  @sankrant
Incidentally both have right wing leanings & are ardent fans of the present regime and dont like its criticism in any form. My tweet on the Allahabad High Court ordering the Uttar Pradesh State Govt to renew licenses for slaughterhouses prompted this short exchange with @ahlade

 

Ok, Lets Talk Science ... 

First things first... 
Lets look at our human teeth, we have molars, incisors and canines. 
Did you say Canines? what are they for? 
They are for eating meat, because evolution has made us this way, we are omnivores, we are not obligatory vegetarians or obligatory non vegetarians. 
Evolution has not restricted us to a narrow dietary range like the Giant Panda who can live only on Bamboo Shoots, or the Antelope, or the Cow who have a different alimentary canal system to digest green plant matter. 
And this is why today, we are the dominant species on this planet, and our actions & evolution as a technology enabled species makes us rule the planet. 

Post industrial revolution our dependence on fossil fuels has only increased exponentially and today the Global PPM of CO2 is past the dreaded 400 PPM. 

So what is the cause of this elevated levels of  CO2 ; that was what @ahlade and me disagreed on .. but here is the data from EPA https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data 

 Agriculture and Forestry contribute to only 24% of the GHG emissions.. primarily its the Industry 21%, our Power Generation & Heating (this is the max contributor at 25%), Transportation (Road, Rail, Shipping 14%) = Totaling to a whopping 70% .. 

Compare this to the Agriculture (including Livestock cultivation, farming, forestry etc) is only 24% but routinely takes the blame by vegetarian advocates who claim that eating meat causes Climate Change. 

Typically vegetarian advocates cite half baked science and claim that eating meat is bad for the planet because livestock farming releases Methane,, this is true it does, but how much, 24% (which includes all land use practices and not just livestock) 

Coming to the Indian Context.. 

However, when this 24% of guilt is applied by Indian Vegetarians , that is when it gets bizarre, bizarre because our meat consumption patterns are just not like that of the west. 
But before I get into that, have a look at the Indian Contribution to Global Warming 

 A mere 7% of the global contribution.. !! 
And we have the @sankrant s and the @ahlade s consistently throwing this argument at us, why? 
Is it because they want us to turn into a Vegetarian Nation? Because they themselves are vegetarians and can afford to be vegetarians. 

It is well known that India is a multi cuisine country, there are significant cultural differences in our eating habits from Kashmir to Kanyakumari (in Tamil Nadu) from Goa to Bengal and onwards to East and North East India..


Not a very accurate map of the varied food choices of peninsular India, but this will do for now.. 

Coming back to the argument, Is it not then myopic to impose your food choice on others? The Food one eats is a personal choice and should never be forced by any regime or ideology. 

It is also well known that our Caste System has placed the Brahminical Ideology on a Pedestal and some of us still worship this ideology and look down upon who advocate meat eating. 
But the fact is that Meat, especially Beef is a cheap source of protein for a majority of us Indians. 

To be honest, even yours truly started eating beef during his student days, as he could only afford that in his minuscule student stipend from home. 

Lets Talk about Indian Cows .. 

We have the largest livestock in the world, yes that is true !! 
We have 30.39% of the Global Livestock !! 
Holy Cow! Did you say!


And what are they used for? 
Obviously as Draught & Milch Cattle ! 
And what happens when they get old ! Should we let them off to fend for themselves as scavenging foragers! 
Unfortunately, that has been happening ! Cattle Grazing has always exerted a tremendous pressure on our green cover and this is likely to increase as more and more farmers abandon their cattle instead of selling them to slaughter houses once they get old and don't yield as much. 

Every part of cattle is used, the skin is used in the leather industry and the meat is sustenance for the poor masses for whom it is the cheapest protein source available. The hoofs are used for producing glue, while the bones are used for potash, the pancreas for insulin.  

There are numerous livelihoods associated with Bovine industry and all these have gotten severely threatened by policies advocated by this Govt either directly or by silent condonation of  the numerous lynchings which are taking place. 

Bovine identity has sadly become a National Cause propagated by the Fringe who have in recent times gotten mainstream. 

Since the time, I began working on this blog post, there has been a lynching at Jharkhand and in a crowded suburban train where daily commuters took out their rage on teens who could be identified as Muslims by their attire and facial hair. 

There has been a #NotInMyName campaign which has a mass appeal and I feel we should just let people eat what they eat. 

No Hindu Scripture prescribes that we give up meat or restricts us from eating Bovine meat. And I say this as a Beef Eating Hindu. 

Often I come across analogies, that I should try Human meat or try eating my dog.. the analogy is so lame. I will of course have to consider it ass an option if I am faced with survival choices in war or a calamity. That's evolution for you. 

Survival of the fittest. 

Remember Cauliflower or for that matter most vegetables would not have remained in the evolutionary race if not for human consumption. So is the case with bovines, remember majority of Indians cant afford chicken or fish but beef is a cheap source of protein. 

A healthy nation is a smart nation, lets not impose our food fascism on those who dont have food choices like us privileged class.


  

Friday 25 October 2013

Lessons from Phailin

It was on the 8th of October that the first warning of a Depression over North Andaman Sea was given by the Indian Meteorological Dept (IMD). Tropical Cyclone (TC) 02B (before it was given a name) hit North Andamans with a wind speed of 70-80 kmph. It crossed North Andamans the next day. But heavy rains still prevailed. 

It lashed the following places : 
Mayabunder (Middle Andaman s)                - 336 mm 
Long Island (Andaman Group)                     - 336.8 mm 
Car Nicobar (Nicobar Group)                     -   65.4 mm
Nancowry (Nicobar Group)                         -  14.8 mm
Hut Bay  (Andaman Group)                          - 43.4 mm

These rain fall figures are for a 24 hr period, notice the almost a foot of rainfall in Middle Andamans. Normal life was significantly disrupted in Middle Andamans but no lives were lost. 

Alarm bells started ringing by the 11th of October when satellite imagery of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) and other Independent Observers namely Eric Holthaus predicted it to be a significant storm, based on thermal imagery. 

In a revolving system of nomenclature of cyclones,  TC 02B was now named as Phailin (pronounced as Pi-lin) meaning a sapphire and a common thai name for a girl child. 


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 10, 2013. At the time, Phailin had top winds of 75 mph. Image source: NASA.

By 12th Oct 2013 it was understood that Phailin had set its course and was following all the predictions made so far on its predicted track. It was intensifying, soaking energy from the warm ocean waters of the Bay of Bengal and had set its course for Gopalpur, a picturesque sandy coast on Odisha. 

The Government of Odisha had requested help from the Ministry of Defence to keep choppers and troops ready for relief effort early on even while it was crossing Andamans. Having once suffered the onslaught of the 1999 cyclone, the state government of Odisha spared no effort in evacuation of all the coastal districts. Both Odisha and the state of Andhra Pradesh were on high alert. Andhra Pradesh was deemed to be particularly vulnerable as unlike Odisha where the Chief Minister had cancelled leave of all Government employees, Andhra was in turmoil, its power grid was powered down by striking government employees. 

It was a tough time for Odisha, Phailin hit during the Durga Puja, a celebration of Goddess Durga held in each locality with colorfully erected pandals, temporary shrines to the Goddess. The pujas are meant to celebrate the homecoming of the Goddess. It was a sad sight to see the torn down, and wind tossed pandals. Perhaps all the effort and money spent on puja celebrations could have been spent on Cyclone preparedness & post cyclone relief ( more on this later.)

A significant Storm Surge was being predicted by all international observers, IMD too slowly started recognizing the threat of a surge in the coastal areas and in each subsequent advisory the storm surge predicted height was increased by IMD. 


Figure 2. Storm surge forecast for Tropical Cyclone Phailin, made on October 10, 2013. The peak surge was predicted to be 87 cm (2.9'). Image source: IMD.

TRACKING PHAILIN: 

I had started tracking this cyclone from the time it left Andamans on 9th of Oct, rain fall data of Andamans was procured. Both predicted & observed tracks were being observed. At Dhamra Port, my work place, we have a weather station.  Weather, Wind Speed and Rainfall was observed till the Port Control was evacuated on 12th.  

The other reliable real time data sources was from the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) which had installed real time tide guage at the Gangavaram Port (and it could be observed that the storm surge had already resulted in a rise in sea levels from the predicted tide) 

Both Gopalpur & Paradip Ports had a Automated Weather Station (AWS) installed by NIO and these proved very useful in getting real time data on Wind Speed at Gopalpur. At the time of posting this blog post www.inet.nio.org is down, possibly because Gopalpur AWS must have blown away by Phailin. The last record before this website was taken down was AWS record was stuck at +230kmph at 2240hrs on 12th October (Gopalpur), it was registering significant drops of air pressure, with 0.5 millibars of pressure drops every 20 mins, with the last pressure record at Gopalpur being 938mb (as far as I remember). This was because Phailin eye was estimated to have a pressure of 908mb and as the cyclone approached it was natural that a pressure drop would occur in the entire impact area. What was surprising was the rate at which pressure was dropping. A sure sign of high winds & accompanying rain. 
Dhamra Port at 12th Oct 2013 1500hrs 

Dhamra Fishing Jetty 13th Oct 2013  1200 hrs 

Phailin as seen from Space 

Rains Lashing the Dhamra Fishing Jetty at 0100hrs 13th Oct 2013


AFTERMATH: 

Thankfully there was no storm surge at Dhamra, I understand surge was restricted to a few places in Orissa & Andhra Pradesh.  
But there was severe damage to the power structures, power was knocked off in 11 districts of Odisha. Mobile connectivity was also down completely at Dhamra for about 18 hours. Power returned only after 7 days. Bhubaneswar too bore a lot of damage and there was no power for almost a week. Over 5 lakh people were evacuated in Odisha, however several Districts were inundated. Balasore, Kendrapada bore the brunt of it, with several villages marooned. Odisha Government with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), National Disaster Relief Force (NDRF) commenced a massive relief distribution effort with the help of the Indian Air Force. However with the recent rains and release of flood waters, flooding is expected to remain, Bhadrak was not flood affected at the time of reporting. But Bhadrak too has flooded, and the level of Rushikulya river (the river mouth beaches of which is a famous nesting site of the olive ridley turtles) is rising as I write this. 

BETTER DISASTER MANAGEMENT 

The fact that Odisha is flood affected cant be denied. But what can be done to minimize the damage? How better can we be forewarned? 

How about... 

Having an east coast port joint warning system with all the ports on east coast having real time weather gauges. I hope the web portal run by National Institute of Oceanography (www.inet.nio.org) is up and running soon, this portal could have the real time data of all the ports in the East Coast, including Bangladesh's ports. 

Oceanography Projects taken up by the Department of Ocean Development (Government of India) the National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai and the the National Institute of Oceanography should be integrated and linked to an objective of the need of Real Time Data and its analysis to warn us of impending extreme weather events. 

Storm Hunter Planes /Hurricane Hunters which can gather weather information from right inside the cyclone. Maybe a Indo - Bangladesh initiative (two countries periodically affected by cyclones) 

A Publicly available informative website with meteorological data from our armed force's numerous defence bases in peninsular India. 

Deployment of Data Buoys in the Indian Ocean, manned jointly by our defence forces and NIO. 

FLOOD & STORM SURGE FORECASTING

INCOIS has a Indian Ocean Forecasting System this could be integrated with the Weather Stations & Tide Gauges currently being manned by NIO 

The Central Water Commission has a website with a flood forecasting system. This should be made more user friendly and should reach out to the stakeholders 

Such steps will definitely help all the stakeholders including but not limited to district administrators, disaster relief workers, aid agencies, news agencies. Such steps would besides giving holistic information would help the internet public (the largest stakeholder) to understand the ground situation a lot better. 

Lastly, the importance of social media especially twitter helped a great deal in getting ground information during Phailin. Live tweeting Phailin was a learning experience for me as I could learn so much about cyclones.   

Twitter is like the Ham Radio of this Age, but then for Twitter one needs internet. During Phailin, mobile connectivity was the first to get affected before the power lines got torn off. But Radio works via short waves (SW), medium waves (MW) and frequency modulated (FM) radio waves. With our new fangled phone tablets (phablets) we assume that our connection to the rest of the world is unlimited but we forget that sometimes the old is more reliable than the new. We should have more community radios.

Ham Radio, Community Radio is the best medium of communication during a natural disaster, as even when power and mobile towers are down, the radio unit always works in isolation. We need to open up our policies on Community FM Radio. 

To summarize, 

  1. We need integrated national multi agency natural disaster warning systems. 
  2. We need real time weather, tide, gauges, to monitor severe weather systems remotely. 
  3. We need a user friendly internet resource with multi agency data, which is regularly manned and updated with relevant information & reliable forecasts
  4. We need to open up our community radio policies, making them more easier for village community social units like village youth clubs, mahila sabhas etc. to apply for and operate community radio stations, during and after natural disasters.